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Tracking Emerging Markets' Leading Economic Indicators

Tracking leading economic indicators helps economic policy planners, business decision makers, and investors detect turning points and predict the future behavior of business cycles. Because no single measure of aggregate economic activity (such as GDP) adequately predicts business cycles, accurate analysis requires a composite picture referencing multiple types of time-series data.

To help our corporate and investor clients make informed decisions in complex and competitive emerging markets, Boston Analytics has developed a set of time-series-based economic indicators modeled after indices used in North American and European markets, but adapted to the unique conditions and requirements of nations and regions such as India, Asia/Pacific, and the Middle East.

JANUARY 2010
CNBC-TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index for India



The index for January 2010 stands at 72.5, an increase of 7.8 percent from December’s reading of 67.2. It is encouraging to see that sentiment related to a majority of the components of the composite have exhibited signs of improvement. Rise in sentiment related to the nation’s overall economic conditions, personal financial conditions, consumer spending, inflation, interest rates, and employment appear to be driving the composite upwards.

While it appears that the bottoming process has matured with multi-month moving averages beginning to show signs of a change in trend, next month’s numbers will bring more clarity in ascertaining the likely direction of the state of consumer confidence in urban India.



  Latest News

The index for January 2010 stands at 72.5, an increase of 7.8 percent from December’s reading of 67.2.


The index for December stands at 67.2, a decrease of 4.9% from November’s reading of 70.7.


Consumer confidence falls again in august - drought, inflationary pressure and sluggish demand offset forces of economic revival.

The fall in consumer confidence in August 2009 can be attributed primarily to pessimism surrounding the Indian consumer’s outlook about urban unemployment, intensifying inflationary pressure, and reluctance to spend on big ticket purchases such as consumer durables, vehicles and housing.


After a small bounce in june, consumer confidence falls in july.

The fall in consumer confidence in July can be attributed primarily to pessimism surrounding the Indian consumer’s outlook about general employment conditions, concern about continuing inflationary pressure, and weakening sentiment related to discretionary spending.


Indian consumers express marginal optimism ahead of polls.

After a continuous decline over the last nine months, consumer confidence shows a bounce in April.


Despite a steep decline in the WPI compared to a 13-year peak last August, consumers continue to signal concern about high retail prices– points out the Consumer Confidence data from Boston Analytics for the month of April 2009.


Consumers report feeling increasingly uneasy about their job security and fear more hardship to come , according to Boston Analytics’ Consumer Confidence data for the month of March 2009




Boston Analytics Unveils Monthly India Watch Sector-Based Research Report on the Automotive Industry in India

"Automotive Industry in India" report is based on findings derived from the proprietary CNBC-TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index (CNBC-TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index) surveys.





Boston Analytics Releases October Edition of Stock Market Diaries
The Boston Analytics India Market Index (BA IMI) decreased by -6.86% during October 2009, falling from 1570 in September 2009 to 1462 in October 2009.

>>Read the Stock Market Diaries October 2009 report

 

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